OAS EXPLAINS – QUANTUM COMPUTING: THE PROS AND CONS.THE BAD (HARVEST NOW, DECRYPT LATER) HAPPENING NOW. THE GOOD: THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF QUANTUM COMPUTING LIE IN THE FUTURE.

05 Aug

Exploring the Implications of "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" Strategies in the Age of Quantum Computing

The rapid development of quantum computing is poised to revolutionize numerous fields, from medicine to artificial intelligence. However, as promising as this technology may seem, it carries inherent risks, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity. One of the most pressing concerns is the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) strategy. This method involves the collection and storage of encrypted data by malicious actors today, with the intention of decrypting it in the future once quantum computers with sufficient power become available. Understanding the implications of this strategy and preparing for it is critical for individuals, businesses, and governments alike.

The Basics of Quantum Computing and Its Threat to Encryption

Quantum computing differs fundamentally from classical computing. While classical computers rely on bits as their smallest unit of processing, quantum computers use "qubits," which can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to a property called superposition.

Qubits can be described as: qubits take on richer states and extend beyond just 0 or 1 - they can be in a superposition, or a complex combination, of both 0 and 1.

This unique feature, combined with quantum entanglement, allows quantum computers to perform complex calculations exponentially faster than their classical counterparts.

Currently, most of the world's secure communications rely on public-key cryptography algorithms, such as RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). These algorithms are based on the difficulty of solving certain mathematical problems, such as factoring large numbers or solving discrete logarithms. With classical computers, these problems are computationally expensive and infeasible to crack within a reasonable timeframe.

However, with the advent of quantum computers, algorithms like Shor's algorithm can solve these problems efficiently, rendering traditional encryption methods insecure.

What Is "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later"?

At the core of HNDL strategies is foresight.

Cybercriminals and even state-backed hackers are aware of the trajectory of quantum computing advancements. They are intentionally stealing sensitive information today, even though they may lack the computational resources to decrypt it.

Their plan is simple: harvest encrypted data, store it, and wait until quantum computers are powerful enough to decrypt that data using quantum algorithms. This approach is particularly worrisome for information that retains its value over time, such as trade secrets, national security data, personal financial records, and healthcare information.

Unlike traditional attacks that seek immediate gains, HNDL strategies focus on delayed gratification. Even if it takes 20 years before quantum decryption becomes a reality, the payoff could be monumental. Sensitive data harvested today may still hold immense value years down the road, posing an urgent need for proactive countermeasures.

Immediate Risks and Long-term Consequences of HNDL

The implications of HNDL strategies are vast and multifaceted, impacting various aspects of society:

National Security: Governments store classified communications, military strategies, and diplomatic negotiations in encrypted files. If compromised, this data could expose vulnerabilities and cause geopolitical instability, even years after it was initially captured.
Intellectual Property: Businesses safeguard trade secrets, patent filings, and proprietary algorithms with encryption. Hackers using HNDL strategies could access this information, leading to significant financial and competitive losses.
Personal Privacy: Encrypted communications, such as emails, financial transactions, and medical records, are highly sensitive. If decrypted in the future, individuals could face identity theft, fraud, or violations of their privacy.
Institutional Reputation: Organizations that fail to adopt quantum-resistant encryption face the risk of compromising stakeholder trust. A future breach relating to today's data could tarnish their reputation for decades to come.

While the theoretical danger of HNDL strategies is widely acknowledged, the practical consequences are often underestimated. By the time quantum computing capabilities become widely available, it may already be too late to protect data that has been harvested over the years.

The estimated timeframe for a full functional Quantum computer to available varies between 5-15 years, however IBM claims that since 2016, IBM has rolled out more than 75 quantum computers for cloud access. The company frequently updates those machines, so about 10 to 15 computers are available for use at any given time, Crowder said. (TechTarget)

Quantum-resistant Cryptography: The Need of the Hour

Recognizing the looming threat posed by quantum computing, researchers and organizations have been actively developing quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.

These algorithms, also known as post-quantum cryptography (PQC), are designed to remain secure against both classical and quantum attacks.

Unlike traditional encryption methods, PQC algorithms are built to withstand the computational capabilities of quantum computers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been leading efforts to standardize PQC algorithms. In 2022, NIST announced the first batch of quantum-resistant encryption schemes that will form the foundation of secure communications in a post-quantum era.

As organizations transition to these new encryption protocols, they will be better prepared to defend against both current and future attacker capabilities. However, the implementation of PQC is not without challenges. Upgrading systems to use quantum-resistant encryption is a time-consuming and resource-intensive process.

Organizations must inventory their cryptographic assets, replace vulnerable algorithms, and secure communication channels—all while ensuring minimal disruption to their operations. For entities with significant amounts of legacy data, this process can be especially daunting.

Proactive Steps to Mitigate the Threat

Although HNDL strategies pose a significant risk, organizations and individuals can take proactive measures to mitigate the threat. Key strategies include:

Adopt a Cryptographic Inventory: Businesses and governments should start by cataloging all cryptographic systems in use. This includes identifying vulnerable encryption protocols and assessing their susceptibility to quantum attacks.
Transition to Quantum-Resistant Algorithms: Policymakers, organizations, and software vendors should prioritize adopting PQC standards as soon as possible, even before quantum computers become mainstream.
Secure Existing Data: By encrypting stored data with quantum-resistant methods, organizations can protect their archives from HNDL strategies.
Increase Awareness: Cybersecurity professionals must educate stakeholders about the long-term risks of quantum computing to emphasize the urgency of transitioning to PQC protocols.
Collaborate on Research: Governments, academia, and private sector entities must work together to continuously improve encryption standards and build robust quantum-resistant solutions.

Side Bar:

Citrix NetScaler’s Commitment to a Post-Quantum Era

NetScaler, the world's most advanced ADC, is dedicated to a long-term vision that prepares organizations for the post-quantum era while simultaneously investing in robust, contemporary protection across the entire technology stack. This commitment enhances NetScaler’s innovative trajectory with a market-leading networking and security platform that can be seamlessly deployed in any environment—whether cloud-based or on-premises—leveraging a unified control plane and API. This strategic approach effectively reduces complexity, mitigates risk, and lowers costs for enterprise organizations. (Citrix's Post -Quantum Cryptography 2025: Timeline, Threats & Action Plan)

Looking Ahead: The Timeline of Quantum Computing

One of the challenges with preparing for HNDL strategies is the uncertainty surrounding the timeline for quantum computing advancements. While commercial quantum computers are still in their infancy, researchers estimate that quantum machines capable of breaking RSA encryption could become feasible within the next decade.

Given the long lead times required for cryptographic transitions, the cybersecurity community cannot afford to delay. On the bright side, quantum computing holds the potential to enhance encryption methods through quantum key distribution (QKD). QKD uses the principles of quantum mechanics to create nearly un-hackable encryption systems. However, the technology is still in the experimental phase and is unlikely to replace widespread cryptographic systems in the short term.

Conclusion: Preparing for a post-Quantum Era

The "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy represents a growing threat in an era increasingly dominated by quantum computing.

While this strategy exploits future advancements to compromise today's data, it serves as a wake-up call for organizations to take proactive measures now. By transitioning to quantum-resistant encryption protocols, safeguarding data archives, and investing in ongoing cryptography research, organizations can mitigate the long-term risks posed by quantum technology.

As the quantum revolution continues to unfold, securing digital communications must remain a top priority for businesses, governments, and individuals alike. The time to act is now—before the capabilities of quantum decryption render today’s data security measures obsolete.

Comments